Reopening the Strait of Hormuz, expanding access to Venezuelan oil and lowering prescription drug prices could give American families some welcome breathing room before Election Day.

For American families exhausted by years of rising prices, several pieces of encouraging news are beginning to arrive at once. 

None will return the cost of living to what it was five years ago, and some expenses — especially rent — may never fully retreat. But declining energy prices, recovering oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and another expected round of prescription-drug agreements could produce noticeable relief during the weeks leading up to the midterm elections.

The most immediate improvement is occurring in oil.

Brent crude ended Friday at $89.31 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $83.40. Those prices remain elevated, but Brent fell more than 5% during the week and WTI more than 4%. Traders are responding to evidence that Persian Gulf exports are recovering and that the United States is gradually breaking Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The market does not need to wait for a comprehensive peace treaty to lower prices. If American forces can keep shipping lanes clear, escort tankers and prevent Iran from accurately attacking them, the risk of a catastrophic supply interruption diminishes. Estimates suggest total Gulf exports may already have recovered to 15 million or 16 million barrels per day, including oil moving through pipelines and other alternative arrangements.

Should exports reach 60% to 70% of their prewar level by mid-September, Brent could plausibly fall into the low $80s, with WTI moving into the $70s. The pending agreement giving the United States access to Venezuelan oil fields will not produce large quantities of new oil immediately. Rebuilding Venezuela’s ruined energy infrastructure will take years. But the prospect of substantial future production in the Western Hemisphere could help remove some of the long-term geopolitical premium from oil prices.

For drivers, relief should arrive with a delay. The national average for regular gasoline is approximately $4.09 a gallon. Gas stations are still selling fuel refined from oil purchased at higher prices, so this week’s decline in crude may take several weeks to reach the pump.

September is nevertheless arriving at an opportune moment. Gasoline demand normally falls after Labor Day, and refineries begin switching to less expensive winter-grade fuel. If WTI remains below $80, the national average could move below $4 relatively quickly. Under favorable conditions, something around $3.70 to $3.90 by late September or early October is conceivable.

Cheaper oil would do more than reduce the number displayed outside the neighborhood gas station. Diesel prices influence almost everything transported by truck, including food, clothing and household supplies. Lower jet-fuel prices can eventually restrain airfares. Farmers pay less to operate machinery, construction companies spend less running equipment and delivery services face smaller fuel bills.

Consumers might therefore see modest relief — or at least slower price increases — in groceries, airline tickets, shipping charges, ride services and some manufactured goods. Businesses may initially use lower costs to rebuild margins rather than cut prices, but competition eventually forces at least part of the savings through to customers.

Not every price will cooperate. Restaurant menus rarely decline after wages and ingredient costs rise. Auto and homeowners’ insurance reflect repair costs, litigation, weather losses and replacement values, not merely gasoline. Electricity bills depend heavily on local utilities, transmission capacity and regional regulations.

Rent is the most stubborn expense. 

Even if general inflation cools, existing housing shortages, construction costs, high property taxes and insurance premiums can keep rents elevated. A slowing rental market may produce smaller annual increases or occasional concessions, but families should not expect their landlords to reverse several years of accumulated increases. Inflation coming down means prices rise more slowly; it usually does not mean the old prices return.

Natural gas presents another complication. American households may not receive immediate relief because strong overseas demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas supports domestic prices. Qatar, ordinarily responsible for about one-fifth of global LNG supplies, reportedly saw its exports collapse by 96% after Hormuz became dangerous. Some Qatari delivery cancellations have now been extended into the autumn.

If the American-protected route becomes safe enough for Qatari LNG carriers, however, international gas prices could decline considerably. That would reduce competition for American LNG and improve the outlook for winter heating costs in both Europe and the United States.

Health care offers another promising front. Reports this week indicate that the White House is preparing additional pricing agreements with midsized biotechnology companies. The companies would reportedly provide state Medicaid programs with prices closer to those available in other developed countries, extending the administration’s most-favored-nation strategy beyond its earlier agreements with Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen and other major manufacturers. The projected Medicaid savings from this next group of agreements could reach $64.3 billion over ten years.

This follows government data showing prescription prices falling at their fastest annual rate in more than six decades. Some of the decline reflects Biden-era Medicare negotiations that took effect in January, while Trump’s agreements, TrumpRx discounts and international-price pressure appear to be broadening the effort. The encouraging fact is that successive administrations have built upon one another’s work rather than discarding every existing mechanism.

None of this guarantees an affordability boom before November. Housing, insurance and many services will remain painfully expensive. Yet families do not need every price to fall to feel a change. Cheaper gasoline, moderating grocery costs and lower pharmacy bills are frequent, visible expenses. Even modest reductions can improve both household finances and public confidence.

For Republicans, the timing could hardly be better.

Iran’s closure of Hormuz drove gasoline above $4 and threatened to make affordability the administration’s defining political liability. If Trump can turn that story around — reopening the strait, developing Venezuelan oil and reducing drug prices — he will have something more persuasive than promises to offer voters: evidence that the pressure on family budgets is finally beginning to ease.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)